Los Angeles at Memphis

After dropping the first two games of this series, the Grizzlies have rallied back to win the last three, and look to close out the Clippers at home tonight. Memphis has truly taken over this series, and over the last 14 quarters of play, the Grizzlies have won 11 of them, tied one and lost only two, as they have been decisively better. Los Angeles faces additional problems tonight as it appears Blake Griffin will be a game-time decision, but either way, likely less effective. They have even more problems as star PG Chris Paul is dealing with a badly bruised left thumb. The Grizzlies are killing LA in the paint as Gasol, and Randolph have had three big games in a row, both going for 20+. PG Mike Conley has out-played Paul averaging 16.2 points per game and 8.6 assists. Memphis is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA ,and over the last four games has held the Clippers to 87.8 points per game. I would expect that the ailing Clippers will be playing tough on the defensive end and trying to shorten the game, so I expect a defensive battle here in this one. That will play into the hands of the Grizzlies, who are comfortable in that style. Memphis is 40-19-1 to the UNDER when following an ATS win, as well as 51-25-1 ATS in their last 77 following a straight-up win. The last six in this seres in Memphis have seen five play out UNDER the total. Go with Memphis and the UNDER.