Indiana at Miami

The Indiana Pacers saw Game One slip away when LeBron James drove to the hoop and made the winning shot as time expired in overtime. They may have missed their chance to claim home-court advantage in the series. The game finished at 92 points apiece in regulation, right about at the expected total. But, I expect the defenses to make some adjustments tonight, as both these teams do it well on that end of the floor. I also don't expect Chris Anderson to go 7-7 from the field in Game Two. Anderson was decisive for the Heat, contributing 16 points in 18 minutes. The 16 points were a season high, as Anderson had only reached double-digits six times all season. The Pacers are now 14-6-1 to the UNDER in their last 21 games when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their previous game. The Heat have allowed less than 90 ppg at home this season, and with the half-court nature of the game in the playoffs, along with adjustments being made. The Pacers have also been highly competitive with this Miami team all season. They won two of three in the regular season, and came within a point of making that three of four. The advantage they have is inside, as they have consistently done some damage off the glass, particularly the offensive glass. Miami has to be concerned about Dwayne Wade's injuries, as he played a playoff high 41 minutes in Game One, and may not come back as strong in Game Two. Wade has not been the same impact player as he was a year ago in the playoffs when he averaged 22.1 ppg compared to 13.7 this year. Chris Bosh has also declined, going from from 18 ppg a year ago to 13.6 this season. You may think that because Miami may have a few more options on the bench that their minutes are down, but Wade is actually playing more, and producing less. Bosh is averaging 2.5 minutes more, but his production per minute is also down. It all equates to these teams being closer than they appear. Play on Indiana and the take the UNDER.