Indiana at Miami

The Indiana Pacers have made slow and steady progress as a team. Three years ago, they just got to the playoffs. Last year, they advanced to the second round, and now this year they beat the No. 2 seeded Knicks in six games to advance to the third round. The Heat is certainly a team to respect, but to this point they have played a losing Milwaukee team, and an injury-plagued Chicago team. There are two areas of concern for the Heat. Miami is not the best rebounding team in the league, as a matter of fact, they finished the regular season at -1.51 to put them in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Indiana was the top rebounding team in the NBA at +4.95, and that margin has swelled to +9.83 in the playoffs. The Pacers are also the best at defending the three-point shot where they allowed just 32.7% on the season, and were No. 1 in FG percentage defense, allowing just 42%. Miami is going to have to work for every point they score, as is Indiana because Miami is very strong on the defensive end. But, if Indiana can control the glass, especially on the offensive end, and extend possessions and get put-backs, they are going to be right there. There is good reason to believe that they can as the three games played this season saw Indiana go 2-1 against the Heat, and off the offensive glass won the battle 36-17, and won the overall rebounding battle 122-89. The Pacers are 7-2 to the UNDER off three days of rest, and five of their last six vs. a winning team have failed to get to the total. They have fresh legs, and history says they have the ability to win the battle on the glass which should help shorten this game. Play on Indiana and the UNDER.