Indiana at Memphis

The Grizzlies have been on quite a run. They've won six straight to move above .500 for the first time this season. Does that mean they should be favored by this much vs. the Pacers? I don't think so. In all of sports, teams that go on a winning streak to peek above .500 typically do poorly in their next game. In a way, they take a sigh of relief and as crazy as it may sounds, take their next opponent lightly. To some extent, they lose that sense of urgency that propelled them on their run. The public also takes notice of the run and milestone and the spreads usually get a bit inflated. This spread is also large due to Indiana's recent struggles on the road. They aren't going to want to go 0-4 on this road stretch and will play hard tonight. I expect Jermaine O'Neal to play better tonight than he has against the Suns for obvious reasons. Teams winning 45-55% of their games on the season, coming off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 70-37 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.