Indiana at Los Angeles

A team that commits less than 15 fouls in their previous game and are also under .500 are 447-545-31 ATS 45.1% since 1995. That is substantially significant with a data set of over 1000 games. Now examine the hard line choices as to why: 1) Played very soft and 2) Refs swallowed their whistles and let them play last game. If they were on the road their last game, as the NBA goes, more fouls are typically whistled against the visitor, then the likely source is their soft play. So let's add the variable of the last game being on the road, then we have a team that commits less than 15 fouls in their previous game and are also under .500 and the last game was on the road are 201-275-15 42.2%. Clearly, they played very soft, and this historically bodes poorly in their next game. This goes against Indiana tonight. The play is on the Los Angeles Clippers.