Indiana at Detroit

These two teams have played UNDER the total the last two games but I think they're ready to go OVER as they did in the first two. Indiana was held under 80 points in the last two games and they'll adjust here. Indiana is 16-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both teams scored 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers just seem to score more on the road and they definitely play loser defense. Games featuring a total of 170 to 179.5 points and a good home team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) facing an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) following a game with a combined score of 165 points or less have gone over 88% of the time since 1996 (22-3). This one is due and we'll back the OVER for one star.