Indiana at Denver

The Denver Nuggets had a stretch of home games where they went 2-3 SU. This team otherwise has been 19-0 SU at home. The current home winning streak has reached 15 games. The problem this creates is slowly as the streak gets noticed by all, the lines move out of value range onto the other side. It has already started to show itself with Denver failing to cover 2 of their last 3 at home. Indiana has dropped 5 straight overall to slip to .500 on the season. The Pacers after 16 games of allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to do so. This is another factor in the line. I think we have value here as the Nuggets are carrying a lot of excess line weight right now. Make the play on Indiana.