Houston at Utah

Stick a fork in the Rockets. Yes, oftentimes prognosticators overreact to the first two games and pronounce the loser done, only to see them come back and make it a series. This is not one of those cases. In this case the home team lost both and now travels to a place where no road team wins. Houston is just too depleted to make a go of this. While McGrady is great, after him there is no one left to keep up with the strong and deep Jazz. Utah showed last game that they are on a mission, which makes sense after their good but ultimately disappointing finish in last year's playoffs. It's often those teams that get close but don't make it that come back with a vengeance the next year. Utah appears to be that team in 2008. The Jazz were unmatched at home this season going 37-4. They understand that a letdown loss here means another trip to Houston which they obviously want to avoid. On the road, this Jazz team was supposed to be weak but they held the Rockets to just 83 ppg. At home, there is no question that this team is one of the best in the NBA if not the best. A double-digit win against a tired and depleted Rockets team is not only not out of the question, but a near certainty. After game two McGrady said, "I'm pretty tired. It's tough man, banging with those guys. It's a physical team. (Utah's) Matt Harpring has a football mentality. I had no legs (in the fourth). I was empty. I tried to do everything I could - trying to rebound, trying to make plays for my teammates, trying to score, playing 43 minutes. That's a lot." He'll again face stiff double-teams all game. He'll likely again get his points in the first three quarters. But, he'll again run out of gas at the end. The Rockets have to expend so much energy just to keep with Utah through three. After that, there's nothing left for the home stretch as evidenced by their 17 points in the fourth quarter last game. Utah averaged 109 ppg at home this season while holding opponents to 94.6. How will Houston expect to keep up with that? Utah is 28-11 ATS vs. winning teams including 19-3 since the All-Star break! They are also 28-11 ATS as a home favorite. Nine points may seem like a lot, but it's not enough. Jazz roll here.