Houston at San Antonio

The San Antonio Spurs have been a playoff fixure for a couple of decades now, and one thing that always seems to ring true is they are extremely difficult to beat on their home court. While all the games this season between these teams were close, this is a different animal all together. The Spurs have by far the best track record on their home floor come playoffs where they hold a 65-39 ATS mark in their last 104. They are also an even better 20-8 ATS here as a #2 seed (7-2 ATS in Game 1). The Rockets are a great offensive team, but the Spurs have shown through the years that their commitment to the defensive end in the playoffs carries a lot of weight. The Spurs finished with six more regular season wins than the Rockets. And since the NBA playoffs began, teams that finish six games better than their playoff opponent go on to win the series 84% of the time, so a home loss is unlikely here. Make the play on San Antonio.