Houston at Sacramento

The Kings finished 3-16 last season, but they are obviously a much-improved team. They already own two straight-up wins as a home dog and another as a one-point favorite. They have the offense to out-score Houston here and Houston's defense has been awful so far. The Rockets have a tendency to let down after a good game as they are 11-21 straight-up on the road that past two seasons when coming off an ATS win. I think the Kings have a good shot at winning this game and I like them at +175 on the moneyline. I also like the UNDER here. This total is set very high thanks to the way these teams have played. But neither is going to play this way all season and I think the right time to jump on the UNDER is tonight. The Rockets are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven as a favorite. They are also 13-2 UNDER in their last 15 road games after scoring 100+ in four straight games. Outliers tend to revert to the mean and I expect these teams game totals to start dropping.