Houston at Sacramento

Houston is thick in the playoffs race and playing some defense for Coach Kevin McHale, allowing 90, 89 and 93 points in three of the last five games. The most impressive was a win at Chicago two games ago as a +8 dog allowing 93 points and 5-of-17 from long range, then a win at the Lakers allowing .429% shooting and 3-of-11 (27%) from beyond the arc. They face a Sacramento squad that is on a 3-1-2 run UNDER the total and has scored 85 and 94 points the last two games, both losses to the Clippers, a team that can't play defense. The UNDER is also 3-0-1 in the Kings’ last four games as an underdog, so look for far fewer points than oddsmakers anticipate. Play the UNDER.