Houston at Portland

The Rockets have lost all the confidence and momemtum from an amazing 22-0 run. They responded well initially with the loss of Yao, but it is now showing in their overall play. They have gone just 3-5 since, and a lot of things have changed. During their 22-game winning streak, their defense was very intense, as they allowed just 87.6 ppg, and not a single team scored over 100 points. Since that time, four of the last six have reached triple-digits. They have allowed 103.7 per game on average, going 3-5 since the streak ended. That is a change of +16.1 ppg! The change isn't just on the defensive end of the court. The Rockets also averaged 100 ppg during their streak, but since have averaged just 94.5 ppg. An offensive change of -5.5 ppg. Collectively with a defense yielding 16.1 ppg more and an offense scoring -5.5 ppg less, the Rockets are playing -21.6 ppg worse than during their streak! Portland has been a solid team at home all season, compiling a 25-11 mark. If you look closely, they win at just about the same rate at home as some of the NBA's elite Western teams. Phoenix (27-11), Lakers (26-11), Golden State (25-12), New Orleans (27-10) and Cleveland (25-11). Houston has played on the road against these teams eight times, with the average line being +3. Here against a team that has been their equal on their home-court they are -6.5? See the value? Portland is also 25-8 ATS the last two seasons as a home dog, further showing they are very under-valued at home. That 25-8 ATS mark is also backed by a strong 21-16 SU as a home dog. It further points to the fact that Portland should be in line with other teams Houston has met on the road with comparable home records. Portland has a good chance of winning this one straight up, and we will back them here as a live home dog.