Houston at Miami

What's up with the Heat? They lose six of seven games a month ago and tears are flowing in the locker room. Then they go on to win seven of eight, destroying some teams in the process. Whatever it is, Miami is playing very well right now and I think they remain motivated to avoid falling back into their slump that was extremely painful. Houston can score, but their defense is atrocious. They allow 106.7 per game on the road. Overall they allow teams to get 4 points per game better than their average. In contrast, Miami's defense holds teams to over 5 points per game less than their normal average with teams averaging only 93.7 in this building. Houston can beat bad teams, but against the league's best, they struggle (just 9-19 ATS the past couple of seasons vs. teams like the Heat at .600 to .700). The Rockets are also just 48-72 ATS the past three seasons after a game in which they covered the spread. And, under Rick Adelman, this team is just 33-52 ATS revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 100+ points. Miami should roll here.