Golden State at San Antonio

The Golden State Warriors were a surprise winner in the Denver series. They opened up by almost taking game one vs. the Spurs this series, before losing a heartbreaker in double-overtime. It will be hard to pick up the pieces from that loss which looked solid when they were up by 15 with four minutes left. I think that last four minutes, when San Antonio finally became San Antonio, was very telling and I expect a carryover for tonight's game. They limited Golden State's offense when they dug down deep on the defensive end, and I look for more of the same tonight. Steph Curry ended up playing all but four seconds of the the last contest, or just about 58 minutes. I'd be surprised if his impact and shooting numbers aren't down in in this game. San Antonio is 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 at home vs. a team with a losing road record. They are also 51-38 ATS the past two seasons vs. winning teams and 49-31 ATS as a home favorite over that span. Take San Antonio. Also take the OVER here. In the playoffs, Warriors games have averaged 216.7 per game. The Spurs have scored 109 per game in the playoffs. When facing winning teams this season, Golden State has gone 30-17 to the OVER and on the road this season, the Warriors are 27-18 to the OVER. That includes a 14-5 OVER mark following a loss. Go with San Antonio and the OVER.