This pick was released to clients on May 23, 2015 at 9:32AM ET.
img NBA

Golden State at Houston

May 23, 2015
img9:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

The Houston Rockets are pretty much in a must-win situation tonight against Golden State. They trail in the series 2-0, and no team has ever come back down 3-0. The Rockets looked horrible early in the LA series, losing a pair of consecutive games by a combined 58 points. They rallied back from a 3-1 deficit to get here - only the ninth team ever to come back down 3-1. They certainly had their chances in the first two games, and could have easily come out of them 2-0 or at the least 1-1. The series turns to Houston now, so I expect their best effort tonight considering the consequences of a loss. Houston has done a respectable defensive job in this series, holding Golden State under their season average in both games, and that was done on the road, where the Warriors score even more. Golden State has not been as good offensively on the road, and expect an even stronger defensive effort from Houston tonight. Houston has been very consistent this season, as at no time have they lost three straight games this season. The Rockets own a 24-9 ATS mark in their last 33 after a loss, and have been 23-9 ATS in their last 33 at home overall. Golden State is just 4-10 ATS following a win in their last 14, and own a 42-18-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 61 vs. the Southwest (remember all five teams from the Southwest made the playoffs). Overall, Golden State is 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine, and the Rockets are 8-3 to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a winning team. Golden State is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in Houston, where the UNDER is also 8-3 in the last 11.Take Houston and the UNDER.

1 unit on Houston +1 (-101) (risk 1 to return 1.99)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 215 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Golden State Warriors img
115
Houston Rockets
80
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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