Golden State at Houston

This is an interesting battle of offense vs defense and we see Golden State struggling to meet their lofty average of 108.4 ppg. Houston does not see totals posted in their home games over 200 very often. Over the last five years, this has happened just 13 times, and the UNDER has prevailed in nine of those thirteen (69% of the time). The average total posted in these games has been 203.3, and the average total points scored has been 196.6, so we are looking at close to 7 points of value here. This season has been no different. The Rockets have had three games played on their home-court with a total posted of 200+, and all three have gone UNDER, and by an average of 17 ppg. This season the Warriors have been scoring again, but when they meet a team in the top 10 in the NBA in scoring defense, that average really takes a hit. Golden State has played in five games vs the NBA's top 10 scoring defenses, and has scored an average of 94 ppg! That is a full 18 ppg less than their overall average, and that is even with an OT game vs Philadelphia. The Rockets are holding foes to 89.9 ppg here at home. We will follow the track record of these performances, and play the UNDER here. Golden State is just 10-37 the past three seasons as a road underdog of +200 or less. And, Rick Adelman-coached teasm are 46-14 at home when coming off a game in which they allowed 85 or fewer points. The Rockets are playing great basketball right now and we'll also back them to win this game.