Golden State at Denver

This is going to be a shootout of epic proportions. Thee Warriors are allowing 106.8 points per game while Denver scores 107 per game (111 at home and 113 over their last five games). Golden State also scores (108 per game) but they get just 105 per game on the road. The difference is defense. Denver's defense is not very good. But, at home, it's respectable, allowing just over 100 ppg. Golden State allows 106.8 per game - over six per game higher than Denver. Denver's been on a roll as they have outperformed the spread over their last three games by 25 points. Home favorites at 60%+ SU after beating the spread by 24+ points in their last three games are 77-13 (86%) vs. teams at 50%-60% SU over the past ten years. Over the past three seasons, the Warriors are 9-37 as a road underdog in this moneyline range. They are also 3-9 off an upset loss at home the past two seasons and 5-12 overall off a home loss. Over the past two seasons, the Nuggets are 14-5 off an upset win and 10-2 off a road win in which they scored 110+ points. We like the Nuggets at home here.