Golden State at Denver

I think that everyone thought that the Nuggets, who were hot down the stretch, would dispose of the Warriors in quick order in the playoffs. The opposite has been true through four games, as it has been all Golden St. The Warriors have taken a commanding 3-1 lead in the series and look to close out the Nuggets tonight. Every team looks great when they shoot the ball very well, and it helps to mask inefficiencies elsewhere that the Warriors have, especially without David Lee. Golden State is 20-5 ATS when they shoot 50% or better. That means they have done so in only 25 of 86 games this season, or 29.1% of the time. They have averaged 57.6% shooting over the last three games. It is quite unlikely that continues tonight, and they are a 43% cover team when they don't. I also believe that with their backs against the wall, the Nuggets are going to come out with a strong resolve on the defensive end early to make life difficult for Golden St. The Nuggets are 23-12 ATS when they play as a home favorite, and they hold their opponent to less than 50% shooting, which represents 35 of their 43 home games. This will lead to a low-scoring first half, with the Nuggets getting the win and cover. Play on Denver, and take the first half UNDER.