Golden State at Denver

What a difficult Game one loss for the young Warriors. They gave it their all, but lost on a last second shot to a Denver team that is 39-3 at home. Golden State star David Lee was lost for the rest of the playoffs because of a complete tear of his right hip flexor. Lee led the league with 56 double-doubles in his second All-Star season, a huge inside rock that this young team relied on for defense, rebounding and leadership. With their depth compromised, they will have to slow the pace down. Golden State is fourth in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, 13-6 UNDER the total against the Western Conference and 5-2 UNDER the total in their last seven road games. But they don't have enough depth or offense to keep pace with Denver. Denver's great depth gets even better as power forward Kenneth Faried promised that he will return from a sprained left ankle for Tuesday's Game two. They run at teams in the thin Denver mountain air, and the Nuggets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games, 43-19-1 ATS against the Western Conference. When these teams meet the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the Warriors are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Denver. In addition, the oddsmakers have overvalued Denver at home with totals, with the UNDER 11-4 in the Nuggets' last 15 home games, plus 4-1 UNDER the total when these teams meet in Denver. Play the UNDER, and take Nuggets in Game two.