With less than six seconds left in OT it looked like the Champs would prevail in game-five but Rasheed Wallace tried to trap Ginobili in the corner leaving Robert Horry wide-open for yet another three. A fatal move as Horry nailed it sending the Spurs off to San Antonio with a stranglehold on the series needing only one win in either game-six or seven. Sheed's play goes down as one of the biggest Finals bonehead moves in history.
The series now returns to San Antonio with the momentum clearly back in San Antonio's hands. At home, San Antonio completely crushed the Pistons in games 1 and 2, winning by an average of 18 points! The Spurs are 46-5 (31-18-2 ATS) at home including 8-2 both straight-up and against-the-spread during the playoffs and come in sporting a perfect 17-0 (11-6 ATS) mark hosting an Eastern Conference Team the past two years including 12-0 (6-6 ATS) entertaining a Central Division team. Making a Detroit repeat mission more difficult, the Pistons haven't won in San Antonio since '97 going 0-10 straight-up and winning just 3 of 10 ATS.
Then again, you can never count the defending champs out, regardless of circumstances. The Pistons have held foes to just 85.8 points/game during the playoffs and come in with a solid 30-3 mark (23-9-1 ATS) their last thirty-three when holding opponents under the 90-point range. The Spurs are just 6-14 (5-15 ATS) their last twenty when held under 90 points. Considering what we witnessed in game-five, Tuesday's battle in Texas should be a dandy knowing the Pistons have won EVERY elimination game the last two years.
But, San Antonio has history on their side here tonight. Since going to the 2-3-2 format there have been 7 times that a road team enters game 6 down 3-2. Not once has the road team won that game (0-7 SU). The bottom line is that the side here is too tough to call in my humble opinion. I expect San Antonio will win but not sure if it will be by 5.5 points.
Instead, let's look to the TOTAL. Expecting a defensive battle in this must-win situation for Pistons? Can Pistons, who are allowing under 86 points/game during the playoffs, hold the Spurs under 90-points? As stated, Detroit goes back to their strength in elimination games. They play strong defense. As such, they are 10-3 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series since 1996. They will rely on defense to give them a shot tonight and as a result, they have a chance at keeping San Antonio under 90 points. Consider that Detroit held the Spurs to 84 points in game one on this court and the Spurs are 26-3 UNDER their last twenty-nine when held below 91 points. The Pistons are 20-5 UNDER in their last twenty-five when allowing 91 or less points. We know the Spurs will play incredible defense tonight - they always do at home. The last four games in this series have gone OVER but so what? The Spurs are a totally different defensive basketball team at home vs. on the road. In games 1 and 2 of this series in Texas, San Antonio held Detroit to 69 and 76 points respectively. At home this year they are holding opponents to 41.4% shooting and 84.7 points! San Antonio is 17-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Expect defense, defense and more defense on both sides tonight. We get a bit of a gift number here since the last four went OVER and as a result, the public is jumping on the OVER to the tune of 66-70% (depending on source) at time of this writing. Four stars on UNDER 173.5 tonight.