Detroit at San Antonio

Both the spread and the total have moved a lot since opening. San Antonio went from a 5 point favorite to 6.5 and the total dropped from 181 to 176 - five full points! The side is a difficult call here. San Antonio is very tough at home and well-rested. But, 6.5 is a lot of points against the World Champs. Instead, we'll look at the total. Detroit is 11-2 UNDER on the road in their last thirteen. San Antonio is a perfect 6-0 UNDER in their last six playoff-series Game 1's. In the last five meetings between these two squads, the UNDER has hit 80% of the time. It's no wonder - both of these teams play mean defense. Games involving two good defensive teams (41.5-43.5%) that both rebound well (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) have gone UNDER 69% of the time (54-24) since 1996. How about similar games to this? San Antonio is 13-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. They play their best defense at home, having held opponents to 41.5% shooting and 85.2 points per game this season. And, we saw what they were able to do to the high-flying Phoenix Suns. We also know all about Detroit's defensive prowess. They've held opponents to 85.9 in the playoffs. All signs point to the UNDER here with two great defensive teams. While sometimes it makes sense to go contrary, I can't see any reason tonight. Two stars on the UNDER.