Detroit at Miami

Miami can go for the jugular here and put the Detroit pistons on the ropes. They really are on the ropes already. While many can't come to grips yet with the facts, the Pistons are looking like they are done. A win here would go a long ways towards proving me wrong but I don't think they get it. The fact is that Detroit is looking winded. They are now an unbelievably awful 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Miami smells blood and they know they have to win this game. They were up 2-1 in the Conference Finals last year and let things slip away. They saw Cleveland jump out to a commanding series lead and let Detroit come back to win. Miami views this as a must win given their home court advantage. And, they are more rested than the Pistons. The comeback against Cleveland was very impressive but it was a grueling seven game series in which they left a lot on the floor. This year is different than last for Miami as both Shaq and Wade are healthy. And, they have a better supporting cast with key role players like Antoine Walker contributing. Under Flip Saunders, the Pistons are now 1-10 ATS after two ATS losses so a bounce back here doesn't look too likely for Detroit. Another sign of their fatigue is the fact that Detroit has managed just 84.8 ppg in their last five games. As stated last game, Miami scores 103 per game at home. I see Miami running over the Pistons here and taking the 3-1 lead.