The Pistons rolled out the dominant defensive and absolutely crushed the Heat 91-66 Saturday forcing a winner-take-all Monday nighter in Miami. The Pistons are 11-6 straight-up in second season with a 9-6-2 record for backers and have now won every elimination game (8-0) the past two years. Hitting 9-0 in yet another must win or go golfing situation could be a tough. Detroit hasn't exactly dominated foes on the road during the playoffs this year, breaking even at 4-4 (4-5 ATS). On the other hand, the Heat are a solid 6-1 (5-2 ATS) at home during the second season and 28-7 (17-16-2 ATS) the last thirty-five in front of the home crowd.
What's holding this line down? Three things. The Heat's three playoff losses have come against the Pistons, Dwayne Wade is still a big question mark and the public has a short memory (i.e. last game's 25 point Pistons win).
UNDER bettors have now cashed a third time in the series Saturday and all indicators point to another defensive battle. The most impressive stat? Miami is 22-1 UNDER in their last twenty-three scoring less than 100 and Detroit will be playing vicious 'D' again tonight (they know it's their recipe for success). Miami will also be playing killer defense tonight. They have held the Pistons to under their season shooting percentage (43%) in the last five games straight. The UNDER comes through in the NBA 70% of the time when the total is 179.5 or less following a game in which a team allowed 85 points or less and a combined score of 165 points or less 2 straight games (42-18 over the last 5 seasons).
On the road in the playoffs, Detroit scores six points less than they do at home while allowing 3 points more (9 point differential). Miami has been more consistent offesnsively scoring 99.1 both at home and away. But, they play MUCH better defense at home (89.3 at home vs. 99 on the road). So, we can see that we shouldn't overreact to last game. The game tonight should be very different based on venue. In the three games played in Miami in this series, the average score was 171 with Miami winning two out of three. Miami is 26-2 straight-up at home in their last 28. Since the 82/83 NBA season, 39 playoff series have gone to 7 games. The home team won 35 of those and of the 4 home-team losses, two were by just one point (nearly 37/39). Wade is a concern but with our without him, great value on Miami -2. We'll go with the Heat -2 for four stars and two stars on the UNDER.