Detroit at Cleveland

Cleveland comes home 0-2. But they could have been 2-0. They played Detroit very tough on the road. Both games came down to last-shot misses for the Cavs. They come home with a lot of confidence and, we think, a fire in the belly. That, coupled with a strong team and a very strong need to win, we love the Cavs in this spot. Since the beginning of Detroit's recent dominance, they have been in this position (starting off a playoff series 2-0 at home) eight times. The first six times, when going on the road for game three, they went 0-6 SU and ATS. They lost those games by scores of 20, 9, 11, 18, 10, 10. The last two times (both this season), they won and covered game three. They crushed Orlando and the beat Chicago by 7 this year. So what will happen here? Will they continue to win game three or will they revert to what they did the six prior times? We think this will be a very tough spot for a Detroit win. While Orlando was severely overmatched and Chicago seemingly scared and in a daz during the first three games of their series with Detroit, Cleveland is neither. The Cavs can stick with Detroit and they know it. They are 4-1 thus far at home this playoffs season and 30-11 at home during the regular season. With their home crowd behind them, and the knowledge that an 0-3 defecit is the end of the line for them, they will bring a lot of emotion into this game. The Pistons with Flip Saunders as head coach, are 10-24 ATS following a game in which they allowed 80 or less points. The Cavs are 25-14 ATS following two days rest under Mike Brown. Cleveland is 16-4 ATS the past three seasons off 2+ road losses. Both of the first two games in this series ended 79-76. That's 155 total points in each of the first two games. This total, while low for most NBA games, remains high in our opinion. It's posted at 17.5 points above the average of the first two games! Detroit is 29-17 to the UNDER on the road this season. Over the past two seasons they are 27-12 UNDER on the road vs. good teams (60%+ SU). They are 23-10 UNDER the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 25-10 UNDER on the road following a tough division battle. They are allowing 85.7 points per game in the playoffs. Cleveland was 25-20 UNDER at home this season. They are holding opponents to 85.7 as well in the playoffs. Scared about how low this total is? A lot of bettors are which is why it isn't dropping. But, note that in games with a total under 180 featuring two good teams (60%+ SU), the game has gone UNDER the total at a 76% clip (25-8) the past ten years a team is off a game that went UNDER by 19+ points. Take the Cavs to win and cover in a very low scoring game.