Detroit at Cleveland

After picking 5 straight winners in this series, I was way off with my pick on Detroit last game. We'll see if we can get back on track tonight. Cleveland posted the most impressive win of this year's playoffs last game. They went into Detroit with the series tied and won outright as 11 point underdogs. Wow. Now they are disrespected back at home. They are at home and getting 5.5 points? That's not right. Sure, Detroit SHOULD bounce back here with their backs against the walls. But, I question them right now. There's no way they should have lost last game. No way. There are serious question marks now in my mind about their mental state and also their ability to score. Cleveland is either in their head or they have the Pistons figured out - neither are good for Detroit. The Pistons haven't scored in triple digits since game one. They have managed just 77, 72 and 84 in their last three games. In games here in Cleveland they have averaged just 75 PPG and they are 0-2 in the playoffs. 5.5 points seems pretty good to me. Detroit comes into this game 1-8 ATS off two consecutive games in which they did not cover the spread. Cleveland is now 14-3 ATS at home vs. division opponents over the past two seasons. Detroit is also 18-31 ATS on the road vs. winning teams over the past two seasons while Cleveland is 26-14 ATS at home vs. winning teams over that same span. That includes an amazing 11-1 ATS record vs. elite teams that have outscored opponents by 6+ PPG over the season. There's a reason why Cleveland won both games here. They are playing great basketball. They are not scared of Detroit. While this is a must-win for Detroit, Cleveland feels the same as they know their best shot to pull off the upset of the century is to win here at home. They don't want to go back to Detroit for a game 7. Will they win? Maybe. Either way they will scrap and fight for a victory and I see them keeping it close enough at a minimum to cover the spread.