Denver at Utah

Looking at this game and finding value is all about probabilities. Denver certainly isn't a defensive-minded team, and Utah has taken advantage of that to average over 110 points per game through the first five played. That is a huge marker for this one as the Jazz, who have won as many home games as any team in the NBA over the past three seasons, truly are unbeatable when they get to the 110 they have averaged in this series. The Jazz, this season, are a perfect 20-0 straight-up when they reach 110 points. On the flip side, outside of really one good season last year, the Nuggets have been one of the league's worst teams playing on the road vs. good competition. Denver is on a 28-112 straight-up run (that's 20%) on the road vs. teams that outscore their competition by 3+ per game. Utah closes things out tonight.