Denver at Portland

Things have gone from bad to ugly for the Denver Nuggets who have managed one win in their last 10, and won't be a playoff team this season. However, the oddsmakers have now over-adjusted the line on this team. The Nuggets are currently posted as an +11.5 point underdog for the first time since January 8th, 2005, which is ridiculous. Portland has won four straight games, but the early season Cinderella is just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games, and has now become an over-valued team. The Nuggets have delivered vs. better than .600 teams where they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight when facing them, while Portland has managed just two covers in their last seven at home. The road team has not failed to cover in the last six meetings between these teams. Too many points here, so take the Nuggets.