Denver at Portland

The public is jumping all over Portland here and it's no surprise why. Joe Square loves offense and here we have the league's highest-scoring team playing at home against a bad defensive team. The result is over three quarters of the bets going to Portland. That gives us a bit of line value. Denver knows they must commit to defense in this game to have any shot, so I expect them to play up a bit. And, lost in the euphoria about what the Blazers will score here is the fact that Denver is going to put up a ton as well. Denver averages 103.7 per game on the road and their offense is really clicking right now, averaging nearly 112 per game over their last five games. Portland's defense allows 103.5 per game on the season and 107.6 per game over their last five games. So, both teams are going to score a lot here and this is just too many points. Denver has thrived vs. teams like Portland. Since last season, the Nuggets are 18-8 ATS vs. teams that average 103+ per game. Meanwhile, Portland is 10-21 ATS over that span as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). They are also 11-24 ATS during that time after playing back-to-back road games. Take the points with Denver.