Denver at Phoenix

The NBA West is loaded with good teams and there are nine teams that are all playing .600+ basketball to just eight playoff spots. It is hard to separate these teams from each other, but under certain situations the separation is there to be found. Denver has won five-straight games, and really appears to be on an up-tick, but there is a caveat to what you apparently see. The Nuggets are 18-2 SU in their last 20 at home, which includes an impressive 8-2 SU mark over .600+ teams. The road is where they really struggle against the top teams. Overall they are 15-21 on the road, but that doesn't tell the whole story. They are just 1-14 SU against .600+ teams and 4-11 ATS. They aren't just losing these games they are getting buried to the tune of 115.5 to 101.1 or 14.4 ppg on average, dropping 11 of the 15 by double-digits! We know they have won five straight, but we also consider the fact that they have come into these games on the road against .600+ teams four other times this season on a three-game or more winning streak and lost all of them by double-digits, and have also been 2-7 ATS if they are on a multiple game winning streak. The average line in these games has been +6.5, and it is obvious the oddsmakers have shaved a point expecting the public to react to Denver winning five straight, which we have shown, isn't a factor so there is added line-value. Phoenix is entering winning 9 of 11, so they are playing at their best down the stretch. The last three teams with a .600+ record that have come to Phoenix have all lost by seven or more. Until Denver proves they can compete on the road vs. the NBA's top teams, all the value is on the other side and we'll ride the Suns at home in what should be yet another double-digit Denver road loss.