Denver at Milwaukee

We have an 8-5 team here facing a 4-8 team and the oddsmakers are basically saying these teams are even (giving 3 points to the home team). I disagree. I know the Bucks are 4-0 at home but that record is in large part due to the fact that they have faced some of the NBA's worst here including Minnesota, Washington and Detroit. The Bucks own just one quality home win over San Antonio - a game they squeaked out. Milwaukee is just 12-26 ATS since last season in non-conference games including 1-12 ATS vs. Northwest division opponents. Meanwhile, under George Karl, Denver is 112-82 ATS in non-conference games. And the Nuggets are 65-44 ATS under Karl when coming off a double-digit loss. Dating back to last season, the Nuggets are 9-1 straight-up after a home loss. I like the Nuggets to win and cover here.