Denver at Los Angeles

This is a completely different matchup of styles. Denver is a finesse, up-tempo team, and the Lakers play the pounding physical game in the low post with great defense. Defense is more important this time of the season. The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoffs games as an underdog and are not a great rebounding or defensive team, allowing 101.2 points per game (second-worst in the league). The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on two days of rest. While the Nuggets had to push to make the playoffs, the Lakers rested Kobe Bryant for eight of their last 10 games. Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol all skipped the regular-season finale, giving them a full week of rest between games. Ramon Sessions has been a huge upgrade to the LA backcourt (12.7 points and 6.2 assists in 23 games with the Lakers). The Nuggets have made the playoffs nine consecutive seasons, but advanced out of the first round only once, losing to the Lakers in six games in the 2009 Western Conference finals, including a 27-point loss in the series finale. LA's rested group, far superior defense and frontcourt height will own this one. Play the LA Lakers in Game 1. Take the first-half UNDER as well. I expect LA to dictate the tempo in this game and that means lower-scoring. Denver knows they must play some defense to have a shot in this series so I expect Denver to even slow it down a bit. In late season play (post-All Star), Denver is 25-13 UNDER in the first half the past two seasons when facing winning teams. Over that same span, LA is 37-24 UNDER in the first-half when facing good offensive teams like Denver (teams scoring 99+ per game). Take LA and the first-half UNDER here.