Denver at Los Angeles

Denver's defense was sixth in the NBA during the regular season in points given up (109.6 per game), fourth in shooting allowed (46.2%), and eighth at defending beyond the arc. The Nuggets have held the Lakers to 102.3 points per game while going up 3-0 in this series. That's almost 16 points less than L.A.'s season average. Denver is 43-31 UNDER the total as a favorite, 34-23 UNDER after a victory, and 29-16 UNDER versus winning teams. They're also 21-12 UNDER the First Half Total after allowing 105 points or less. Los Angeles won't have its top two offensive threats at 100% in Anthony Davis (wrist injury) and LeBron James (ankle). The Lakers are 30-21 UNDER the total against winning teams, plus 22-7 UNDER the First Half Total as a home dog and 63-35 UNDER the First Half Total in the first round of the playoffs. Take the First-Half UNDER as a Max Play and the full game UNDER.