Denver at Los Angeles

In game two games thus far we have seen a few teams with a distinct skill advantage repeat their game one wins and covers (Cleveland, Utah, New Orleans). We put the Lakers in this same category and we like them again here vs. Denver. We pounced on the Lakers in game one noting how Denver really struggles on the road, especially vs. elite teams. That same dynamic is in play here tonight and despite any desire to even the series, they just can't keep with Kobe, Gasol and the rest of this high-flying Lakers team. They don't have the committment to defense. This will eventually be the downfall of George Karl who has done an admirable job with the Nuggets. But, he will never make it deep into the playoffs with a team that doesn't care about defense. We don't expect a letdown by LA as every team in the West has been conditioned to never take a night off this year. Unlike the east where a couple of teams absolutely dominated, in the West it was a dogfight all year and as a result the mindset is for no team to ever feel overconfident or safe. Kobe said after game one, "We played good enough to win the game, but I don't think we are completely pleased with the way we played." This tells us he is not resting on his laurels. Denver is now 2-11 ATS on the road the past two seasons vs. elite teams that outscore their competition by 6+ ppg. This season they own a 4-12 ATS mark on the road vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ ppg and they are 5-13 ATS vs. great offensive opponents (those averaging 103+ ppg). In contrast, LA is 18-4 ATS in their last 22 vs. teams averaging 100+ ppg and 13-5 ATS overall this season vs. teams scoring 103+ppg. Denver can outscoure weaker foes and roll over them. But, when they face a great team that can also score, they are in deep trouble. Lakers to make it two in a row.