Denver at Los Angeles

It doesn't seem long ago that Kobe was the spoiled brat who was trying to get out of LA and doing whatever he could to blame others. Now he has the supporting cast he needs, has put together an MVP season, and has his team as the top seed in the NBA's toughest conference. It's the 1980s all over again as we have LA and Boston as the top seeds entering the playoffs! LA beat Denver this season by an average of 16.3 points per game. In Denver, the Nuggets will have a fighting chance but on the road, they are in huge trouble. They were just 17-24 this season away from home and falter big-time vs. playoff teams who they can't simply out-score. The Lakers average 110 per game at home this season - more than the high-flying Nuggest average on the road (108.4). Yet, they allow a full 10 ppg less than do the Nuggs. Denver is just 3-13 ATS the past three seasons on the road vs. teams that win by an average of 6+ ppg. Los Angeles is 18-5 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like Denver (those averaging 83+ shots per game). They are 17-4 ATS in their las t21 games vs. teams allowing 99+ ppg. Lakers roll here. With the addition of Gasol, this team is THAT good.  In terms of the total, it's hard to believe the oddsmakers have vaulted this total in the range of a regular season game, but there is no doubt it has been done so with the knowledge that the general public will be pounding the OVER here. What most don't realize is Denver has been in the playoffs three straight years, and is 14-1 to the UNDER in their 15 playoff games, and reached 100 points just once - in an OT game! The Lakers entered game one vs Phoenix last year, having averaged 107.4 ppg over their last 17 regular season games, and game one produced 182 points. Two years ago they entered scoring 107 ppg in their last nine, and failed to score 100 points in five of seven games vs Phoenix, with the first four going UNDER . These teams over the last two years in head-to-head regular season action have not topped 227 points, and the playoffs become a completely different game. There is no adjustment made here, and we expect this one to stay below the posted total. We're taking the Lakers to cover and the UNDER.