Denver at Los Angeles

It doesn't seem like long ago the Clippers were sending the Nuggets home for the season. The Clips fell to the Suns last night, and it is fitting that the Nuggets will get their first test in LA tonight. I see a good opportunity to exploit the total in this one. Denver has developed a reputation for race horse basketball, but it appears that game translates better in front of the home fans, and doesn't travel well. The Nuggets reached the century mark on 28 of 41 occasions last year while at home or about 70% of the time. The road presented a different story, as they managed 100+ points just 15 times (not counting OT) or a bit less than 40% of the time. The Clippers only managed to hit the coveted century mark 16 times, while being a bit stingy to opponents, allowing the 100 barrier just 13 times! Denver, while enjoying scoring sprees at home, failed time and time again to meet the oddsmakers and public's expectations on the road, as they covered a 200+ total in just 5 of 19 tries. The Clippers, as stated above, scored less and defended better at home, and they too, did not find a total of 200+ to the liking of OVER players. They failed to go OVER this line on 8 of 11 occasions. The total picture here shows both teams combined reaching this total only 8 of 30 times putting us in a very favorable 22 of 30 or 73.33% situation. The final thought is tied to last year's playoffs, where all 5 games went UNDER. NBA players are fragile when it comes to playing defense, so to mirror a playoff intensity, which led to 5 consecutive UNDERS, it requires a game with a fitting mindset. I would expect the Clippers have been on the minds of the Nuggets all summer. It would lead us to believe that the numbers presented above, will show their value. I'd expect a rather intense game, which usually favors more defense. To top it off, the Clippers have gone UNDER 63% of the time (29 out of last 46) at home over the last two seasons. It all points to a game coming in below the lofty total!