Denver at Los Angeles

Denver played very well last year in round one but this is a different year. Despite upgrades to personnel, they didn't perform nearly as well as they could/should have - especially when compared to last year's incredible second half run under new coach George Karl. They had a good year this year and Carmello finally stepped up his game. But, they still aren't that good. And, they let down big-time towards the end of the season when games were still very meaningful. They lost eight of their last eleven games. My concern is that their usually awesome offense fell apart. If they can't score in triple digits this series, they are in for serious trouble. They averaged just 86.5 points per game in their last four. The Clippers are as excited as can be. It's the first time in nine years they have seen the playoffs. Behind the stellar play of Elton Brand, the Clippers took over "best team in LA" honors this year. Some may say Denver should be hosting this game given their higher seed. But, the bottom line is that Los Angeles had the better record. That's why they get a home game and it's why they should win and cover tonight. George Karl did breathe new life into the Nuggets with his arrival last year. The Nuggs were vitually unstoppable at home then. Not so this year and his road performance has always been a bit suspect late in the season. He is now 20-40 ATS as an NBA coach in April games since 1996. In Denver, this would be a different story. But, here in LA, I like the Clipps to come out fired up and win and cover.