Denver at Golden State

Home court continues to be a huge factor this NBA postseason. Denver is no stranger to this, a team that went 38-3 at home, but 19-22 away. The Nuggets don't play much defense at 23rd in points allowed and 11th in field goal shooting defense. After a red-hot run Denver has had a bump having gone 1-6 ATS over their last seven. Golden State plays better defense at 19th in points allowed and fourth in the NBA in field goal shooting defense allowing .439%. That trails the Pacers, Thunder and Grizzlies, but is better than Miami, Boston, San Antonio and Chicago. The Warriors are using home court and a tough-guy attitude to take charge in this series. They used a 16-2 run to storm back from a 13-point deficit and set up their own knockout blow in a 110-108 Game three victory at Oracle Arena. Denver led the league in fast-break points and points in the paint, but the Warriors have held the Nuggets under their season averages in all three games - mostly because of 7-foot Andrew Bogut. He had six points, nine rebounds, a blocked shot and a physical presence when  the Warriors needed it most. And Golden State has Stephen Curry, whom the Nuggets simply can't match up with. Golden State is on a 6-0 ATS run and the Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. And when these teams meet the Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. Play the Warriors in game four. I also like the first half UNDER here. After a hotly contested game one, the Denver Nuggets have been searching to find the same resolve that held the Warriors to 95 points. Golden State has had their way since and, with the nuggets down two games to one, with the prospect of going down three games to one looming in this contest can be the motivation they need. This game necessitates that the Nuggets get after it and make a statement early on the defensive end. I would expect the talk in the Golden State locker room to be the same as Denver torched them for 66 first half points in game three and the wakeup call was answered as the nuggets managed just 42 in the second half. I look for both teams to take the floor with a strong defensive presence. Play the Warriors and the first half UNDER in game four.