Denver at Golden State

The Golden State Warriors breezed past the Denver Nuggets in the series opener, winning by 16. That could be quite an ominous number because in the NBA playoffs preliminary round, a home team winning by exactly 16 points in the opener is a perfect 12-0 in Game 2. These Round 1 winners are also 86-22 in NBA playoff history in Game 2. The Warriors love to play small ball, as their lineup is full of shooters and they have great success operating that way, making matchups pretty impossible for opponents. That was the story Saturday, and I'm looking for a repeat tonight. Both of these offenses are humming right now with Denver averaging 119.2 points per game over their last five games, and Golden State 117.6 over that same span. Now that the feel-out game is out of the way, I expect this one to result in a lot of points. When facing teams like Golden State that average 46-plus-percent from the field this season, the Nuggets are 20-11 to the OVER. They are also 20-9 OVER this season in games with a posted total in the 220s (113-76 OVER in the Malone era overall). Dating back to the 2019 season, Denver is 39-23 OVER following a loss and 33-19 OVER following a double-digit loss. Back the Warriors as a Max Play, and take this game OVER the total.