Denver at Golden State

It doesn't get any more meaningful or tight than this as two teams locked in a tie for the last playoffs spot meet. If the Nuggets win, they will claim the straight-up tiebreaker given that they have already beaten the Warriors two out of three this season. A Warriors win evens the season series as well as the next tiebreaker (record vs. conference opponents). This game is more important to Golden State and they luckily get the Nuggets at home. Denver is mean at home but just 16-23 on the road. Golden State is very similar, posting a mediocre road mark but going 26-12 thus far at home. Denver especially struggles vs. high-scoring foes who can keep up with them. They are just 6-21 ATS in their lats 27 vs. teams that average 103+ ppg. Golden State has gone 20-8 ATS at home vs. teams winning teams at home the past three seasons after the All Star break. We are going to fade the Nuggets in this barn-burner.