Denver at Detroit

The Nuggets high octane offense has now put up 305 points in their last two games. The 168 vs the Sonics was an NBA season high. We were on them in that game, a 52-point win, but we are fading them in a big way tonight. When the Nuggets score, they win, and usually cover, but when they don't they get buried. Don't think the Pistons haven't taken notice of this! Detroit takes defense personally, and when they step on the court with defense in mind, they just don't give it up. The Nuggets are averaging 109 ppg, but when they play on the road against teams in the top eight in the NBA in points allowed, they average a very pedestrian 95.7 ppg! That's a full 13+ point dropoff. The odds-makers say they don't reach 100 tonight, and that means they will be in trouble. The Nuggets are just 2-16 ATS when they don't reach the century mark. They have reached scored 100+ in 15 of 21 road games, or 71.4% of the time vs teams not in the top eight in points allowed. They have hit triple-figures in 3 of 10 games or 30% vs the top eight. Detroit is at the top of the NBA in points allowed. Just six of 32 teams have gotten to the century mark against the Pistons on their home floor this season. Denver over the last three years (six games), has never scored triple digits against the Pistons home or away, without the assistance of OT. Denver can't win when they don't score 100, and have gotten beaten up by some of the solid NBA teams on the road that play defense. They have already lost at San Antonio by 11, at NO by 24, at Boston by 26, at Houston by 28, and at Houston again by 14. Those are teams in the top five in the NBA. The Nuggets output in these games? 93.7 ppg! Detroit by double-digits.