Denver at Atlanta

The Nuggets have won two in a row on the road but they remain just 13-20 on the season away from the Pepsi Center. I don't think they have what it takes to beat a team that is 20-12 at home. Atlanta has the added motivation that comes with revenge here as they lost to Denver by 10 points in late February. The Nuggets are just 15-29 ATS the past two seasons in close games (line of +3 to -3). They are also 3-12 ATS as a road favorite up to 3 points over that span. This season they are 4-14 straight-up on the road when the total is 200-210. I like the home team here. I also like the UNDER. The Hawks have reached the 100 point mark just twice in their last 16 games. These teams played to a 190 point game just a short while back in Denver, and I expect something close to that here. The Nuggets may be known for offense but on the road in their last 57 vs a home team with a winning percentage of greater than .600 they are 39-19-1 to the UNDER. I'll back the UNDER in this one.