Dallas at Phoenix

Phoenix is making it tough on itself, losing the last two games after winning the first two in this series, but the Suns are going back home where they won Games 1 and 2 by an average of 13.5 points. Chris Paul got into foul trouble and wasn't able to do his fourth-quarter heroics as the Mavericks poured in 20 3-pointers on 44 attempts. However, Phoenix is 36-10 straight up at home this season, and Dallas is 25-21 on the road. The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference semifinal games, but we're looking more at just a straight up win in tonight's matchup. The last two games went UNDER, and the Mavericks are 45-22 UNDER in their last 67 games as underdogs and 35-17 UNDER overall playing with one day of rest. Phoenix is 22-6-1 UNDER after a loss and 11-3 UNDER as a favorite in the playoffs. Dallas is just 6-17 ATS in the last 23 meetings, and the value here is on the home team to win. Go with the Suns on the moneyline for a Max Play, and also back the UNDER.