Dallas at San Antonio

Hand it to San Antonio. There's a reason they dominate the West. Down 3-1 to the Mavs, they've won two straight to tie it up and earn the right to play game seven at home. As Detroit showed yesterday, you don't want to give the best team in the Conference a chance to put you away on their home court. While Dallas was in control a few days ago, now they know they face an up-hill battle. Yesterday's Detroit/Cleveland game totaled 140 points - a full 36 points under the low posted total. A great defensive team, Detroit, went back to their strength and shut down the Cavs who seemed worn out. In this game we get another stellar defensive team at home and I expect a similar outcome with the game going UNDER. This total is posted as one of the higher ones in the series, especially here in San Antonio. The first two games had totals of 182 and 182.5. Why is this total ten points higher? Well, four of the first six have gone OVER. After a low scoring game one, the next four in a row went over. Last game was another low scoring affair (91-86) but despite that, we see the linesmakers post a very high total here. San Antonio, it seems to me, have finally figured out how to slow Dallas down. They've held them to 98 and 91 in the last two games - both closeout games for Dallas. Why should things be different here? Spurs home games have gone UNDER 60-38 over the past two seasons including 24-11 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5. The Spurs have also gone UNDER 47-38 as a favorite this season and 41-25 UNDER vs. Southwest Division opponents the last three seasons. They are also 31-18 UNDER at home following a road game the past two seasons. Finally, the Spurs are 50-33 UNDER at home vs. winning teams over the past three seasons. Dallas, despite their high-powered offense, has gone UNDER 14-6 when playing with two days rest and 22-12 UNDER when the total is set between 190 and 199.5 this season. Versus division opponents this year, Dallas games averaged 186.6 points while San Antonio games averaged 180 points. This sucka goes UNDER the total.