Dallas at San Antonio

We were on Dallas with a four-star pick in game 4 in this series. In that pick we predicted that while it appeared that San Antonio was in the must-win situation, Dallas felt an equally high need to win. They knew that opportunities to go up 3-1 against San Antonio don't come along often. They in no way wanted to give the homecourt advantage back to the Spurs and return to San Antonio tied. It's nearly impossible to win on the road in San Antonio and Dallas knew it. They had to win that game to give themselves a shot at this series. They are now up 3-1 and there is no doubt that this is a must-win for the Spurs. If they lose this game, the team with the best record in the West is done. It's hard to make a case for Dallas to win this game but will they lose by five points? Not too sure about who will cover the spread but I do have a strong opinion on the total. The Spurs have given up 101 points per game in the playoffs despite holding opponents to 90 per game during the regular season. Dallas, in particular, can score against the Spurs. They've averaged 113 per game over the last three games and they averaged 100 ppg vs. the Spurs in the 8 matchups this season. In games in San Antonio, the Mavs average drops to 95 but that's still enough here as I expect San Antonio to get into triple digits. The Spurs offense woke up the past two games in Dallas as they scored 103 and 118. At home this year they averaged 98 ppg but they've averaged 104 per game in the playoffs. Dallas tends to go OVER the total vs. great teams. Over the past three seasons, they are 17-6 OVER vs. top-level teams (70%+ SU) during the second half of the season and 21-9 OVER vs. great defensive teams that allow under 91 points per game. These teams are getting a feel for each other offensively and I see this one going OVER the total.