Dallas at San Antonio

There's a reason San Antonio is the No. 1 seed -- a LOT of reasons. Depth, defense, balance, and firepower to name a few. The Spurs have exceptional balance, sixth in the NBA in scoring, tops in assists, sixth in points allowed. They overcame a ton of injuries in mid-season, then got healthy and hot down the stretch, including a 19-game win streak. Now they are rested and healthy for the postseason after winning the West a year ago. San Antonio is on a 15-5-1 ATS run and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Tony Parker's penetration has given the Mavericks' porous perimeter defense fits and generated easy layups or wide-open 3-pointers for the Spurs offense. On defense, the Spurs have Boris Diaw, Tiago Splitter, and even Kawhi Leonard to throw at Nowitzki. They gave over 100 in the meaningless finale (a loss), and the Spurs are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, plus 18-8 ATS following a loss. Rival Dallas is in town, but has flaws that can be exposed, starting with defense. Dallas ranks 19th in the NBA in points allowed and 22nd in field goal shooting defense. And forget about a state rivalry. The Mavericks are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings with San Antonio, including 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in San Antonio. The Spurs have won nine straight games against Dallas and will roll by double digits. Play the Spurs in Game One. Also take the UNDER in the first-half in this one. This first-half total is set sky-high, but this is playoffs basketball and I expect an intense start to the series. Dating back to last season, the Spurs are 44-29 UNDER in the first-half to a total set between 100.5 and 105.5. This season they are 33-21 UNDER to totals over 100 and 45-26 UNDER in the first-half as a favorite. In their last 87 games as the #1 seed in the playoffs, the Spurs are 60-27 UNDER in the first-half! Take San Antonio and the first-half UNDER.