Dallas at Portland

Portland has not had a good team in a long time while Dallas has been in the upper tier of the NBA for quite some time now. It has been four years since Portland has beaten Dallas and it may be four more years before they do it again. Portland was a great home dog last season, as they were 17-8 ATS as a home dog. A lot of that had to do with the presence of Zack Randolph, but he is gone now and with it took 23 points per game, and 11 rebounds per game. Portland has been a positive home dog now for the last four seasons, but a closer look at the numbers are quite revealing. They have been 34-20 ATS as a home dog of 5.5 or less, but when they face the really good teams and that home-dog line is pumped up to six-to-eight points they have been a pocket burning 9-18 ATS. Dallas had their most successful regular season last year and a lot of it was due to learning how to finish off a road trip. Dallas was just 2-9 ATS finishing a 2+ game road trip in 05-06, but responded last season by going 9-2 ATS. It is an area they were lacking in the three prior years as they show negative value. Portland is a team that just can't sustain winning and covering. The last four years Portland has been at home for a three game home stand 16 times and they have never gone 3-0 ATS in any of them. They have managed to stay in some games this season by hitting nearly 40% from three-point range, but even with that their offense has managed to produce a No. 22 rank in the NBA, while Dallas is scoring at +9 points per game over last season and No. 4 overall. This may have the look to be a good spot for the home dog, but all indications are that it is not. Ride the Mavs to finish the road trip on a high note. Portland hasn't surpassed 49 first-half points yet this season against weaker defenses than this. Portland is 25-12 UNDER the past two seasons at home against a winning team. Under Avery Johnson, the Mavs are 49-33 UNDER to the first half as a road favorite and 16-5 UNDER following a game in which they scored 105+ points.