Dallas at Portland

The Dallas Mavericks took both games at home, but the Portland Trailblazers are simply a different team at home. While Portland struggled on the road this season at 18-23 during the regular season (now 18-25), they were exceptional at home with a 30-11 mark. That 30-11 mark included a 7-0 finish against winning teams and a 6-1 ATS mark. They also beat  this Dallas team twice during the stretch both SU and ATS. As a favorite, the Blazers are 91-67 ATS over the past three seasons and this year they are 12-4 ATS at home after playing a road game. The Mavs have had struggles as a playoffs dog at 0-5-1 ATS in their last six. Portland needs this game and they can get it. Take them minus the points. I also like the first-half UNDER. Game three in the NBA playoffs sees the first-half UNDER hit at a very high rate as it is a pivotal game with a lot of intensity (and defense). In certain situations (as we have here), the first-half UNDER has come in at a 77% rate the past six seasons (34-10). Dallas is 14-6 UNDER in the first-half this season after a double-digit win and Portland is 25-14 UNDER in the first-half this season vs. good shooting teams like the Mavs (those hitting 46%+ from the field). Take the Blazers and the first-half UNDER.