Dallas at Phoenix

It has been a rocky start for both of these teams, as Dallas remains winless after 4 and Phoenix has managed to put just one in the win column. Has the bloom come off the rose in Phoenix? It seems that their racehorse basketball, at least to this point, has not allowed them to pull away from teams as it did in the previous two years. What exactly is going on in Dallas? I'm not sure too many would believe this team would be out of the gate at 0-4. Dallas has had two problems. One is no defense. They have allowed opponents to shoot 50%. The second is they can't put the ball in the basket, shooting just 42.4%. This should be the place where the Dallas offense gets going. Phoenix loves to run the ball, and takes a league leading 44% of its shots within the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock and hits at a 57.2% clip in that situation, while Dallas allows 57% in the 1st 10 seconds of the clock. Dallas, as mentioned above, has struggled on offense, but has managed a 51% FG percentage in the 1st 10 seconds of the clock, and shots in that timeframe are more plentiful vs Phoenix, as 44% of Phoenix opponents shoot in the first 10 seconds, and they hit on 57%! This presents an OVER opportunity. The average number of shots taken in a Phoenix game is 171.2. The average taken in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock are 44% for both teams, and converting 57% of those. That means 41/75 or 82 points. That leaves 100 shots, 53 free throws and an average of 12 made three pointers to account for 131.5 points. Let's say the other 100 shots convert at a conservative 45%. That is 45 made hoops or 90 points. Let's say 70% of 53 FT'S are made. That is 37 points. Let's add the 15 made 3's, and here is what we have: 171 shots 44% taken in 1st 10 sec. made at 57% rate (average for both teams this year) = 82. 100 shots taken at 45% (Phoenox is 51% in shots between 11-15 so conservative here) = 90. 70% of 53 FT's = 37. Total: 209 points. Add in 36.6 three-point FGA @ 33% (conservative again) and it pushes our conservative estimate to 221 points. The posted total in this one is 210. It shows the value, and we will apply that into a play on the OVER here.