This pick was released to clients on August 07, 2012 at 8:51PM ET.
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Dallas at Phoenix

May 30, 2006
img9:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

As I stated when this series begun, I liked Dallas a lot to win it. I think this is their statement game as they have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead with back-to-back road wins. Without Raja Bell, the Suns have no defensive answer for the Mavs. Even with him, they were short on depth. Without him, they will continue to struggle and tire as this series progresses. Dallas is 24-11 ATS in near-pick-em or underdog games on the road over the past two seasons. They haven't lost a road game yet this season. That's right, no road losses including three games played in San Antonio. So much for home court advantage in the West. Phoenix meanwhile is just 2-12 ATS in late season play at home vs. great teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game over the past two seasons. Phoenix is simply outmatched. Dallas to win...

2 units on Dallas -1 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS
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