Dallas at Phoenix

The Dallas Mavericks started the season just 2-7 and looked to be heading south, but have surged to go 20-6 since then. The problem is they have not put up ATS numbers like a hot team. They have gone down ATS in 11 of their last 17 and have had an easy road schedule to this point, facing just six teams with winning records on the road. The Suns have had their own trouble covering numbers lately despite going 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Mavs have struggled in this spot as they are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record and just 2-5 when their opponent has allowed 100+ in their previous game. This indicates a more focused effort on the part of the Suns, and I'll back them at home in this one.